What if the Moscow Heat Wave Had Been Centered in Chicago or Beijing?

Following a severe drought a significant amount of Russia’s fields near Moscow went up in flames this summer. The average temperature in Moscow in July was 14 degrees higher than the norm. That is a huge jump, one that had never previously occurred. If the temperature surge had been only for a few days that is one thing. However, for the temperature increase to prevail for the entire month of July and well into August is frightening. That is an example of the kinds of more extreme climate events that the climate models say we should expect to frequently occur as temperature rises with global warming trends.

The heat wave in Russia reduced their grain harvest from approximately 100 million tons to 60 million tons, so they lost 40 million tons. That is a huge loss in crop yield but not a complete catastrophe. However, what if the heat wave had been centered on Chicago or Beijing, two of the most prolific grain agricultural areas in the world? What level of grain losses could we expect to occur?

According to one of the worlds leading food security experts, Lester Brown, if that heat wave had been centered in Chicago, we would have lost at least 150 million tons of grain, maybe 200 million tons of grain. If the temperature of Chicago had been 14 degrees above normal during July, there would be chaos in world grain markets.

Lester Brown goes on to say that “Beijing is located in the North China Plain. The North China Plain produces half of China’s wheat and a third of its corn. China, like the United States, produces 400 million tons of grain a year. So anything that took a big chunk of their grain supply would have had an enormous effect on the world.”

Of course, one summer of unusually high temperatures in many areas of Russia, the United States, and China, do not add up to climate change. However, the severity of the temperature change, especially in and about Moscow, are troubling. Should such temperature changes become a trend and spread to the Chicago or Beijing regions world grain markets would descend into complete chaos and severe food shortages would without a doubt create riots and violent behavior in much of the world.