The Long Crisis

Posts Tagged ‘black swan’

Those never say die Black Swans are on the move again. The Dow lost about 104 points yesterday as a series of downgrades by the ratings services downgraded Greece and a number of Dubui firms with close government ties. Today Spain was added to the negative watch list.

Yesterday stocks, gold and oil all fell while the dollar rallied after Dubai World’s Nakheel PJSC reported losses of $3.65 billion on writedowns, Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s credit, and German industrial production unexpectedly dropped. About noon today the Dow is up about 10 points but looking heavy. Over the next few days look for some serious downside action as the Sovereign debt crisis spreads its wings and takes on the look of a Black Swan.

While the recent last Dubai fly by of the Black Swans only caused turmoil in the US stock market for a day or so the news over the past 48 hours was more unsettling.

“Greece is a whole lot more important than Dubai,” said Uri Landesman, New York-based fund manager at ING Investment Management. “There are a lot of banks, in Europe especially, that have exposure to Greece, so if there’s a major problem in Greece, that would be more important than a problem in Dubai.”

Yes, I know that I am using the term “Black Swan” loosely. A true Black Swan event by its very definition is an unexpected disastrous event and debt problems with Dubai, Greece, and Spain are by now widely anticipated. However, the fallout from the Dubai, Greece, and Spain sovereign debt troubles have the potential to trigger true Black Swan events in parts of this interconnected world that are far removed from Dubai, Greek, and Spanish financial centers.

Fitch Ratings also mentioned the the UK and US were on a path that is headed straight for financial trouble, and that unless the present course is somehow corrected it is no longer unthinkable these two spend, spend, spend, nations could lose their Aaa debt ranking.

Now that would lead to a feast of the Black Swans. With Dubai, Greece, and Spain troubles with excessive debt in the spotlight, it looks like many US stock market traders are beginning to question the lofty level of the market after the rally from last March’s lows. After all the US government is creating more debt than any entity in the world. Is the eventual day of reckoning near?

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The disconnect between the rally in the stock market and what’s going on in the real economy is becoming extreme. One must prepare yourself for the great stock market crash of 2010. Perhaps sooner as we enter the holiday season.

Let’s consider a few indicators of the health of the real US economy and the nations financial affairs. For one thing the employment situation in the troubled United States is worse than anything seen in decades. As a matter of fact, were you to calculate the unemployment rate as they did before the government decided to manipulate and massage the numbers you’d have to look to the Great Depression to find a proper comparison.

Sure, I know that the unemployment rate is considered to be a lagging indicator, one of the last to recover as the economy improves. However, with personal bankruptcies at record highs, with another round of home mortgage resets due to kick in in 2010 and 2011, with the commercial real estate market going into free fall, and with so many consumers with no job or fearful of losing a job the potential for a fast full recovery in a consumer driven economy is just not realistic. The consumer is tapped out with no prospect of a fast repair of their debt laden balance sheets.

The way Wall Street is performing you would thing that the recovery is a sure thing. Certainly for now Wall Street is benefiting massively from the trillions of dollars poured into the banks and Wall Street firms by Uncle Sam. But stocks are now once again expensive and consumer confidence is once again declining. And what happens when the big Wall Street firms and banks decide that it is time to sell? With huge positions once again leveraged to high levels and spec trading once again king who are they going to sell to? To each other all the way down? Lead by our renowned Goldman Sachs con men Wall Street has managed to create a monster. The risk of a another bubble pop implosion is real and a clear and present danger. One Black Swan event will do it.

Prices are being ginned up based on a dream recovery with stock evaluations priced to perfection. As a famous economist once said “things that can’t last forever don’t”. We had best prepare ourselves for another great stock market crash as the government is forced by huge trillion dollar deficits to cut back on spending or to massively monetize the debt. Without life support the economy and stock market will tank.

One reason I’m so sure of this is that the US government has made no useful preparations for a transaction into a new world economy where nations must compete for resources, like crude oil and rare earth metals, that in usable affordable form are rapidly becoming in critical short supply. I say useful preparations as engaging in constant warfare is a tremendous mis-allocation of resources. Constant expensive warfare is speeding up the demise of the US dollar as well driving the nation into an impossible deficit spending situation. Probably the US has already reached a tipping point and nothing can be done to prevent a full scale disaster.

Rather than face the up to the fact that the world has changed and that the US is no longer the sole dominant player in the world economy the Obama administration is trying it’s hardest to bring back the old consumer, financial services, and based consumer driven economy that is so over and entirely late 20th century. That gig is over and done with. That is why a recovery to the economy that existed pre 2007 is impossible.

Without a serious effort to downsize many elements of the American lifestyle that lifestyle will increasingly suffer along with the stock market. Once again keep in mind that “things that can’t last forever don’t”.

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Accurate and timely financial forecasting has always been difficult. Especially today, with so many distortions at work in the economy, I can confidently say that no one knows with any degree of precision what the future may bring. Still I believe that there is a strong possibility that in 2010 the tender green shoots of 2009 will be violently chopped down to be replaced by a feast by a flock of black swans from hell. And that our economy will be the meal.

The concept of “Black Swans” was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and refers to high-impact, hard-to-predict, and suppose to be rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations. In portfolio management these are events that are computed to be well outside of the range of statistical probability and are therefore of such a low risk they are not considered relevant to the risk management of the portfolio.

Unfortunately, in 2007 and 2008 black swan events happened so close together and had such a disastrous effect on the world economy that “rare events” were occuring one after the other. Clearly the hedge fund operators and bank traders had mispriced risk by huge margins. Black swans were everywhere.

Nassim Taleb was right with his statements that black swan events happen far more often than anticipated by number crunchers and portfilio managers. I have previously posted in my Taipan Investor Blog about Black Swan Events. Those readers not that familiar with the black swan concept may want to read the post before pressing forward.

Financial events in 2009 have paved the way for a flock of really nasty black swans to emerge in 2010 – the black swans from hell. Since by their very definition black swan events usually happen without warning forecasting their arrival is indeed a tricky business. However, actions already taken by the United States government, various USA state governments, and governments of other developed and developing nations move forward the probability of 2010 being a black swan hell off the charts. Here is why.

1.) Governments Attempting to Cure Problems Caused by Too Much Debt by Issuing More Debt.

The sad development of bubble economies in the recent past is well known. There was the dot.com bubble, the real estate bubble, the stock market bubble. the consumption bubble. As each bubble began to implode various governments of the world, lead by the US, tried to reinflate the old bubble or to inflate a new bubble. Even though the bubbles were largely caused by governments keeping interest rates far too low for far too long, all the while creating new fiat currency, governments seemed to say “what bubble”, let the good times roll. This misguided policy, which results in massive misallocations of capital, continues.

In the US, the Treasury Department will run a huge dollar deficit in 2010. The Obama administration said the economic downturn has been a bit worse than previously thought. It’s estimate for the 2010 budget deficit has been updated – increased by 19% – to $1.5 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office did its own count and came up with $1.4 trillion. Either way, when you get into the trillions it’s a hell of a lot of money. So much, in fact, that the human brain can’t seem to get a handle on it. Debt in the trillions will create fertile breeding grounds for black swans from hell.

2.) Confidence Building Rather Than Fixing Problems.

The year 2009 has lead to a multitude of reassuring comforting statements from all of the important con men and women, errrrrr, excuse me, government spokespersons, from President Obama, Ben Bernanke, Tim Giethner, and FDIC chairperson Sheila Bair. Not to worry, they all say in perfect harmony, green shoots are coming up everywhere.

In 2010, as the very temporary boost to the economy by programs like cash for clunkers and other stimulius programs falls away, the replacement of green shoots by black swans is almost certain to occur. The stimulius programs do not fix anything. We are not in a recession but in a depression caused by a systematic failure of our consumer based economy. While confidence building is an important function of government, leaders cheerleading without putting effective policies in place will lead to disappointment and anger.

Disappointment and anger will lead to more fertile breeding grounds for black swans.

3.) Feds Balance Sheet Already Doubled.

The Fed’s balance sheet is the monetary ballast for the whole economy. As the balance sheet expands, so does the amount of financial activity the economy can support. The problem is that in theory, the potential for inflation increases geometrically. Each new dollar on the Fed’s balance sheet could be multiplied into $10 in the real economy. Bernanke has already doubled the Fed’s balance sheet – buying up an additional $1 trillion worth of Wall Street’s toxic waste failures and the Federal Reserve Bank’s. According to Goldman Sach’s top economist, Jan Hatzius, Bernanke might have to buy another $2 trillion worth in 2010 – bringing the total to $4 trillion.

Black swans from hell must love those trillions.

4.) Number of Troubled Banks Keeps Increasing.

The FDIC reported on Thursday, August 27, that the number of troubled banks rose to 416 at the end of June, up from 305 at the end of March. Says MarketWatch: “FDIC said this is the largest number of banks on its ‘problem list’ since June 30, 1994, when 434 banks were on the list. Assets at troubled banks totaled $299.8 billion, the highest level since Dec. 31, 1993, the agency said.”

So far this year 84 FDIC insured banks have failed. With the FDIC’s funds to support bank failures fast approaching zero, it is highly likely that the FDIC itself will have to be bailed out in 2010. Who knows what type of black swan might show up to feast at a FDIC bailout?

While time and space do not permit a full listing of the potential back swans that 2010 may well bring to our weakened economy you can be assured that 2010 has a good chance of being a black swan heaven and an investors hell. 2010 ten has a real chance of surpassing 2008 as a prime year for black swans. Should a record number of black swans be recorded in 2010, however, the record may not last very long. With another round of mortgage resets peaking in 2011 the hell caused by black swans may be with us for a very long time.

Black Swans love to be underestimated. As uninvited guests it seems that they can wreck their havoc in spite of our best efforts to set up defenses. The challenge is to defend against what? Black swans arrive suddenly, attack spots that we don’t even realize are weak, and cause unforeseen consequences. The defenses we established often work against us and become their allies.

2010 is all too near. We had better brace ourselfs for a financial feast of the black swans.

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