I’ve followed Prechter’s writing on and off for almost 15 years. In that time I learned that 1) he’s the most brilliant social scientist alive today, and 2) it’s still difficult to simply follow his analysts’ work and trade investments successfully.

In the general sense his expansion of work originated by R.N. Elliott in the 1930′s and 1940′s has carried the same message for a long time: Don’t Own Stocks. Since some analysts have now pointed out that, in inflation-adjusted terms, stocks in March were as low as back in 1969, this advice was 100% correct.

Almost anyone inclined to save money would have been better off buying T-bills with it for 15 or 20 years rather than “investing” in the stock market.

The trouble is that the Wave Principle is all about unconscious herding. Each of us is near-literally unable to break free of this gravitational pull, and so it is a rare individual who can cut his or her own path through areas of finance, fashion, and other human-herd behaviors.

Two bits of free advice: First, learn about technical analysis (at least simple concepts like momentum indicators and their non-confirmations) if you have the least inclination to participate in any way in the stock market. Second, if you won’t do this, put your savings in the safest short-term debt you can find (T-bills in the U.S.) and hold on (this is the smart money choice). Technical analysis is the only way to avoid getting sucked into the herd’s desire to own stock at tops and sell stock at bottoms…which is the normal way people (including professional money managers) do these things.