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“Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces,” Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV. “Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway,” the navy chief stated.

It was the second warning in two days. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait if the West imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil shipments. The Strait Of Hormuz is a narrow maritime shipping channel through which approximately 40% of the world’s tanker-borne crude oil shipments flow.

Strait of Hormuz is a Vital Waterway for Crude Oil Shipments

Iran and Strait of Hormuz

Even a quick glimpse of a map of Iran shows the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow passage connects the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) all load crude oil supertankers at their ports which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman to reach the Indian Ocean and on to world oil markets.

New threats to close the Strait of Hormuz underline Iranian concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target Tehran’s vital oil industry and exports. The Iranians are warning that basically they would consider such sanctions an act of war and would retaliate by closing the Strait to all maritime shipping.

Iran is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues. New sanctions proposed by the United States would penalize nations that do any business with Iran’s central bank. Since Iran’s central bank is used to collect payments for Iranian oil and petroleum products sold on the world market such sanctions would cut off a significant amount of Iranian cash flow.

Sanctions Which Back Iran into a Corner are Dangerous

If new sanctions against Iran sponsored by the US are signed into law by President Obama then Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz must be taken seriously. Iran probably has the military muscle to close the Strait, at least for some time. Iran would use a combination of warships, submarines, speed boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, surface-to-sea missiles and drones to stop ships from sailing through the narrow waterway.

There is a real danger that should Iran close the Strait Hormuz the United States would unleash its military against Iranian forces. Such a conflict would prove to be costly for both Iran and the United States. For one thing, the price of crude oil would likely at least double overnight. This would be a tremendous blow to an already weak US and world economy.

Then militarily Iran would likely prove to be a very tough nut to crack.The population is large, estimated to be 78 million by the end of 2011. Much of the terrain is mountainous, giving the Iranians many opportunities to have forces and equipment well positioned in hardened caves and tunnels. Iran is located in a tough region of the world and has had many years to prepare for an attack. Iran has a large number of mobile hard to locate guided missiles which could wreak havoc throughout the Middle East, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are narrow waterways into which no naval commander would want to deploy major warships. There would be very little maneuvering room and no place to hide from shore batteries which could pound ships from artillery pieces tucked away into hidden caves near the shoreline.

Iran has Probably Brought Sizzler Missiles From Russia

It is highly likely that the Iranians have Sizzler type anti-ship missiles which could be fired from the mountainous shoreline or from especially equipped high speed patrol boats. These mach 3 plus missiles are known as aircraft carrier destroyers. No American admiral would risk placing an aircraft carrier battle group in close proximity to possible Sizzler missile locations.

While American forces could quickly establish air superiority over Iran it has been proven many times over that air superiority alone will not win a war against a determined resourceful enemy. Over Vietnam Americans dropped more tonnage of bombs than had been dropped in all of World War II, yet lost the war. More recently America completely rules the skies over Afghanistan yet has great difficulty in overcoming small highly mobile insurgent forces. After nearly 10 years of conflict insurgent forces are stronger than ever.

American generals and war planners want no part of putting boots on the ground in Iran. Fighting well-equipped forces who have had years to build defensive positions, backed up by the considerable fighting ability of Hezbollah forces which Iran would probably unleash against Israel, would quickly become a nightmare.

Iranian generals are not fools. It is unlikely they would take on American forces in head-to-head conventional warfare. Probably they would use the mountainous terrain of Iraq along with IED’s to make life miserable for American forces. A high casualty rate, much higher than in Iraq or Afghanistan, and gasoline prices of eight to ten dollars per gallon, would probably rather quickly temper America’s appetite for a prolonged war. Even the Neo-cons would become discouraged as casualties quickly mount.

Increased tensions with Iran are extremely dangerous. Iran seems to be determined to develop nuclear weapons and the US and the Israelis seem equally determined to prevent that from ever happening. The potential for conflict in 2012 is high. Sanctions which further damage Iran’s economy could lead a stressed out, backed into a corner, Iranian government to close the Strait of Hormuz.

It is almost certain that the US government would immediately take steps to open the Strait. From there, a disastrous war could quickly develop that would plunge the entire Middle East into flames. It should be remembered that wars are much easier to start than to exit. However, in the heat of the moment governments are not very astute at remembering history lessons. Horrible wars have been fought for far less reasons than economic sanctions or the closing of a strategic maritime shipping lane.

See background information about Iran at WorldAtlas.

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Lyric Hughes Hale posted an article on December 21, 2011 at YaleBooks entitled “The Conference of the Birds – The Coming Accidental War with Iran” that is well worth reading for anyone interested in Middle Eastern affairs and perhaps more importantly for Americans the state of the American economy and its prospects for recovery in 2012.

The American and Iranian Relationship Has Long Been One of Tension and Distrust

While the status of the Iranian and American relationship has been rocky and contentious for several decades the year 2011 was fairly calm compared to events happening elsewhere in the Middle East such as the revolution in Tunisia and Egypt, the death of Osama bin Laden and Muammar Qaddafi, and the withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq.

The Failure to Talk to Iran While Isolating Iran is a Huge Mistake

However, president Obama made a decision to further impose sanctions against Iraq and apparently moved decidedly away from a policy of engagement and dialogue with the Iranian regime. President Obama has apparently fallen under the influence of the same Washington Neo-con crowd that successfully beat the Iraq war drums so vigorously that the United States invaded Iraq and for almost nine years was engaged in a disastrous and extremely costly war.

There is a great danger of an accidental disastrous war with Iran beginning sometime in 2012. The tough sanctions against Iraq seem to be increasingly effective. In the past two months the Iranian currency has lost half its value against the US dollar. Yet no matter how hard the sanctions bite Iran is extremely unlikely to give up its nuclear power development program and probably its ability to construct a nuclear bomb.

While the recent capture of a US RQ-170 Sentinel unmanned drone increased tensions between Iran and America president Obama wisely decided not to send a special forces team into Iraq in an effort to retrieve or destroy the drone. However, the incident clearly showed that the US is conducting covert operations over and within Iran and probably had some hand in sabotaging centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear material processing plant as well as in assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists.

Covert activities against a stressed-out isolated Iran are indeed dangerous. Iran is a proud nation with a civilization that can be traced back over 5000 years. Under increased stress and increasingly isolated Iranian leaders may make a miscalculation in responding to what they view as US aggression that could lead to an accidental war.

A Miscalculation by Two Nations That Don’t Understand Each Other Could Easily Lead to an Accidental War

As noted in Ms. Hale’s article a war with Iran would be a disaster for the US and world economy. For one thing, the price of crude oil would likely double overnight. In striking back against an American attack Iran would probably create difficulties for the many thousands of Americans left in Iraq. The US may have withdrawn its combat troops but there are still perhaps as many as 17,000 contractors and American embassy staff and diplomats working in the country.

In addition, Iran would probably launch missile strikes against the Saudi Arabian oilfields. There is already a great deal of tension between Shiite Iran and Sunni dominated Saudi Arabia and the Iranians know full well that America depends a great deal upon Saudi oil to fuel its military and to keep the American fossil fuel dependent economy going.

The following article makes reasonable suggestions as to how the United States government should approach the Iranians. Hopefully, a meaningful dialogue with Iran will take place before an accidental war begins. At the moment, within the US, the Iranian war drums are beating at a rather frantic tempo. That dialogue must start soon or it will be too late.

Author Article by Lyric Hale: The Conference of the Birds – The Coming Accidental War with Iran.