Complex Technological Systems May Destroy Our Civilization

Over the past few weeks we have been given a glimpse of how the failure of complex technological systems can, when they fail, cause havoc and destruction. In much of the world of today humans rely so heavily on technology that the failure of critical technological systems could even lead to the failure of civilizations.

One scary example of a complex system that temporarily failed is the insane drop of 1000 points in the Dow Jones industrial averages that occurred on Thursday, May 6, 2010. In recent years trading activity has heavily shifted from human traders and market makers to complex high-speed computers program with exceedingly complex computer trading programs and algorithms. No one seems to be sure as to what caused the terrifying plunge in the Dow and the equally swift 650 point recovery but logic dictates that there was a failure of some sort within the complex high-speed trading system.

The really scary aspect of the bizarre stock market price action is that since no one really knows the cause so far nothing within the system has been fixed. This causes great uncertainty among traders as there is the possibility that such an occurrence could happen once again. The loss of $1 trillion in market value within just a few minutes is obviously a serious matter. It appears that an over reliance upon complex technological trading systems may frighten retail traders away from the stock market. It is frightening to think that the very health of the world economy depends upon over confident computer geeks and programmers who perhaps have overestimated their ability to eliminate potentially fatal errors and perhaps even cyber attacks from the trading system.

Another Black Swan technological based incident is the recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Drilling oil producing wells in deep water requires for there to be a great reliance upon cutting edge drilling technology. The oil well being drilled by the DeepWater Horizon drilling rig was being drilled in 5000 feet of water. The owner of the oil well, British Petroleum, was confident that the latest in high-tech fail safe devices were in place and that the disaster of an oil rig blowing up and then sinking was an impossibility. Once again, an over reliance on complex technology set the stage for an environmental disaster that will impact the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, and perhaps in time, should the oil spill find its way into the Gulf Stream, the entire United States Eastern Seaboard.

In general, our extreme reliance upon the use of fossil fuels to power our energy requirements in the modern world through complex technological systems, such as automobiles, aircraft, electric power generation stations, and ocean liners, set up a chain of dependence upon the sustained operation of our technological systems that leave us vulnerable to the break down of any one of perhaps thousands of parts.

Natural occurrences can also have a severe impact upon our complex technological systems. The recent eruption of the volcano in Iceland was a natural disaster that had a severe impact on one of our complex technological systems. For several days, due to a high level of volcanic ash in the atmosphere airspace was closed over much of Europe. This caused a severe disruption in the operation of airlines. This disruption not only inconvenienced travelers but caused breaks in the supply chain of high value supplies that are normally shipped by air freight.

While the overall consequences were fairly minor and not catastrophic it was only because the disruption lasted for just a few days. A volcanic eruption that spewed great quantities of ash into the atmosphere for several months would have tremendous disruptive, perhaps even fatal for some, consequences for the airline industry and for the industries that air travel serves. So while there was not a technological failure of the systems used by the aircraft travel and shipping industry a natural disaster led to a situation whereby vital technology, such as jet engines, could not be safety utilized.

There is a danger that the consequences of our reliance on complex technological systems could lead to the failure of our civilization as we know it. There are several examples in history of how once thriving civilizations suddenly failed. One worth noting is the Maya civilization. The Maya lived in the eastern one third of Mesoamerica, mainly on the Yucatan Peninsula, which is located in what is now Mexico. The Maya enjoyed a thriving civilization for 3000 years and yet that civilization suddenly failed.

While the collapse of the Maya remains one of the most intriguing events in human history many anthropologists believe that the Maya were dependent upon highly developed water systems that used sophisticated technology of their day to support the growth and development of their civilization. Their dependence upon technology to deliver and distribute water to their population perhaps failed to a long-term drought. Without fresh water as an input into their system their technology became useless.

There are many who believe that the further development of technology will save the human race. No doubt, in recent years we humans have made great advances in the development and use of technology in our daily lives. Consider how the use of computers, cell phones, wireless devices, and satellites have transformed the way we live and communicate. Yet it is only prudent that we keep in mind that technology is not yet fail safe and that failures can, and do, occur.

It is dangerous to the human race to rely so heavily on complex technological systems to such a degree that their failure could also lead to the destruction of our civilization.